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Aftermath of the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis: Media Discourse Analysis of Taiwan and India’s Perception of China’s Threat

Chang-Ching Tu, Hsiao-Chen Lin, Chen-Yuan Chang and Chandu Doddi
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Chang-Ching Tu: Chang-Ching Tu is an associate professor at the Graduate Institute of Strategic Studies (GISS), College of International and National Defense Affairs (INDAC), National Defense University, Bade District, Taoyuan City, Taiwan.
Hsiao-Chen Lin: Hsiao-Chen Lin is an assistant professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, Tamkang University, New Taipei City, Taiwan.
Chen-Yuan Chang: Chen-Yuan Chang is a research assistant at the Graduate Institute of International Security (GIIS), College of International and National Defense Affairs (INDAC), National Defense University, Taipei City, Taiwan.
Chandu Doddi: Chandu Doddi is a PhD candidate in Chinese Studies at the Centre for East Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal, Nehru University, New Delhi, India.

India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, 2024, vol. 80, issue 4, 549-580

Abstract: This study examines Taiwan and India’s media discourse and political elite statements from 1 July 2022 to 1 October 2023, starting from the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis in 2022. We conducted a discourse analysis of over 121,901 news texts using extensive data analysis and text-mining software. Additionally, our research team conducted expert focus group discussions with renowned think tanks and research centres in New Delhi, India. Building upon the data text analysis findings, we further explored India’s stance on the Taiwan Strait conflict, its perception of the Chinese threat and the impact of the ongoing ‘new normal’ crisis on India’s Indo-Pacific strategic layout. The aim was to uncover common security needs and intersecting interests between the two countries, considering their different national interests and geopolitical considerations. Based on the analysis of textual mining and expert discussions, this study reveals the following: First, India is concerned about the current situation in the Taiwan Strait. Second, the current tensions in the Taiwan Strait will influence India’s strategic layout. Third, there is a growing consensus within India regarding the Chinese threat. In light of these findings, this study suggests that Taiwan and India share interests in democratic values, maritime traffic security and high-tech industry supply chains. Taiwan possesses expertise in China studies and a deep understanding of China’s military threat, while Taiwan and India possess specific technological capabilities. Based on these foundations, there are potential opportunities for further dialogue, exchange and cooperation in relevant fields between India and Taiwan.

Keywords: Threat perception; the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis; new normal; India–Taiwan; big data and text mining; focus group interviews (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:indqtr:v:80:y:2024:i:4:p:549-580

DOI: 10.1177/09749284241287564

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