A Model of Urbanization with Nonlinear Migration Flows

Jacques Ledent
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Jacques Ledent: INRS-Urbanisation, University of Quebec, 3465 Durocher Street, Montreal, Quebec H2X 2C6, Canada

International Regional Science Review, 1986, vol. 10, issue 3, 221-242

Abstract: This paper seeks an appropriate specification of the migration exchange between rural and urban areas so that the implied evolution of the degree of urbanization agrees with its commonly observed S-shape. After demonstrating that the gross migration flows between rural and urban areas should be specified as nonlinear functions of the population in the origin sector, the paper introduces a model in which such flows are represented by gravity-type functional forms. When proper bounds are imposed on the parameters of these functional forms, the model yields an evolution of the degree of urbanization that is depicted by a logistic curve. It thus can be used to give insights into the time paths of three basic urbanization variables: the urban-rural growth rate differential, the rural net outmigration rate, and the urban net immigration rate. All take on a zero value at the two extremes of the urbanization process and evolve in between according to a bell-shaped curve. These findings are illustrated by applying the model to data from the United States for the period 1790-1980.

Date: 1986
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:10:y:1986:i:3:p:221-242

DOI: 10.1177/016001768601000303

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