An Econometric Model for Forecasting Regional Population Growth

Thomas R. Plaut
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Thomas R. Plaut: Bureau of Business Research, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712 USA

International Regional Science Review, 1981, vol. 6, issue 1, 53-70

Abstract: An econometric model for forecasting net migration and natural increase is proposed and then estimated using time-series data for Texas. The model is simulated five years out-of-sample and found to be quite accurate in forecasting future population growth. It outperforms simpler prediction methods, thus indicating that explicit modeling of net migration and natural increase is superior to modeling only total population.

Date: 1981
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:6:y:1981:i:1:p:53-70

DOI: 10.1177/016001768100600104

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