Short-term Poverty Dynamics of Rural Households: Evidence and Implications from a Developing Economy

Pham Tien Thanh and Katsuhiro Saito
Additional contact information
Pham Tien Thanh: Faculty of Economics and Public Management, Ho Chi Minh City Open University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Katsuhiro Saito: Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Journal of Developing Societies, 2025, vol. 41, issue 3, 339-365

Abstract: Although many developing countries have achieved remarkable progress in poverty reduction over the past few decades, many rural households still experience poverty or near-poverty conditions, while others fall into poverty. This research aims to investigate the underlying factors behind these transitions in poverty, including remaining poor or non-poor, escaping poverty, and falling into poverty, with a focus on rural Vietnam. For empirical analysis, this research employs panel data and multinomial logit models, which estimate the probability of multiple categorical outcomes—such as poverty dynamics—based on independent variables. The findings reveal that households headed by women or individuals with low education, households with larger numbers of children, households residing in disadvantaged communes, and households affected by health problems are particularly susceptible to poverty. Meanwhile, households with improved housing conditions and better access to resources are more likely to experience improved economic well-being and a reduced likelihood of falling into poverty or remaining chronically poor. The implications of this research underscore the need for policymakers to recognize that different socio-economic groups have different welfare statuses, necessitating tailored policies to effectively address poverty in rural areas.

Keywords: Multinomial logit; poverty dynamics; rural households; Vietnam (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0169796X251335158 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jodeso:v:41:y:2025:i:3:p:339-365

DOI: 10.1177/0169796X251335158

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Developing Societies
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().