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National Institute Economic Review, 2000, vol. 174, issue 1, 2-2

Abstract: • The Bank of England needs to raise the base rate to 6.5 per cent by the start of 2001. • There will be a £15bn budget surplus this financial year, £10bn more than projected by the Treasury in the March Budget. The current budget will be in surplus by £19bn. • Restoring earnings indexation for the basic state pension would require around a 5p increase in the standard rate of income tax, according to the National Institute's generational accounting model. • The economy will grow at over 3 per cent a year in 2001 and 2002, continuing the second longest sustained expansion since the war. • While there is little room for further declines in unemployment, the labour market is in broad balance, and strong productivity growth will offset an increase in the growth of average earnings to above 5 per cent a year.

Date: 2000
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