The GDP fan charts: an empirical evaluation

Kevin Dowd
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Kevin Dowd: Nottingham University Business School, Kevin.Dowd@Nottingham.ac.uk

National Institute Economic Review, 2008, vol. 203, issue 1, 59-67

Abstract: This paper evaluates the probablity density forecasts in the Bank of England's real GDP growth fan charts. Evaluation is carried out using tests that allow for data dependence and using two GDP growth estimates. Results suggest there are problems with the shorter horizon forecasts, but conclusions about the performance of longer-term forecasts depend to some extent on the GDP estimates used in the assessment.

Keywords: GDP forecasting; density forecasting; fan charts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:niesru:v:203:y:2008:i:1:p:59-67

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