The World Economy: Forecast Summary

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National Institute Economic Review, 2017, vol. 240, issue 1, F3-F3

Abstract: Global output growth is forecast to pick up from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.3 per cent in 2017 and 3.6 per cent in 2018 – a slightly stronger acceleration than expected in February. Projected medium-term growth is still well below pre-crisis rates. A striking feature of the current conjuncture is unusual uncertainty, particularly about the interpretation of recent ‘soft’ data showing increased business and consumer confidence in the advanced economies, US economic policies, and policies in Europe in the face of national elections in the largest economies. There are significant risks to our growth forecast on both the upside and the downside but of particular concern are the downside risks related to the adoption of more populist policies in advanced economies.

Date: 2017
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