Forecasting Production of Natural Rubber in India

Deepak Chawla and Vidhu Shekhar Jha

Paradigm, 2009, vol. 13, issue 1, 39-55

Abstract: In this paper an attempt is made to forecast the production of natural rubber in India by using monthly data for the period from January 1991 to December 2005. The forecasts are obtained up to December 2008 using Linear Trend Equation, Semi-log Trend Equation, Holt’s Method, Winter’s Method and ARIMA Model. The accuracy of forecast obtained through various methods is compared with the monthly actual production data of natural rubber for the period from January 2006 to March 2007, the last month for which actual production data were available. This period is also used as a hold-out sample. It is found that Winter’s method gives the best result followed by Holt’s method and Semi-log trend equation. The MAPE of Winter’s, Holt’s method, and Semi-log trend equation are 8.01 per cent, 8.09 per cent and 8.12 per cent respectively. It is therefore suggested that Winter’s method could be used for forecasting the natural rubber production in India. The forecasting method for production of natural rubber in India, as shown in this paper, can be a very useful tool for the Indian rubber industry professionals and policy makers in India.

Keywords: Trend method; Holt’s method; Winter’s method; ARIMA model; Hold-out sample; Forecasting accuracy; Data pattern (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0971890720090107 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:padigm:v:13:y:2009:i:1:p:39-55

DOI: 10.1177/0971890720090107

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Paradigm
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().