The Political Business Cycle: How Significant?

Stuart D. Allen, Joseph M. Sulock and William A. Sabo
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Stuart D. Allen: University of North Carolina, Greensboro
Joseph M. Sulock: University of North Carolina, Asheville
William A. Sabo: University of North Carolina, Asheville

Public Finance Review, 1986, vol. 14, issue 1, 107-112

Abstract: This article provides evidence that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate conforms to a four-year pohtical business cycle such as the one hypothesized by Nordhaus (1976) but only when the incumbent party wins the presidential election. The unemployment rate, however, is only reduced by a cumulative effect of .3 to .6 percentage points m the two years preceding a presidential victory .

Date: 1986
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:14:y:1986:i:1:p:107-112

DOI: 10.1177/109114218601400107

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