An imprecision importance measure for uncertainty representations interpreted as lower and upper probabilities, with special emphasis on possibility theory

Roger Flage, Terje Aven, Piero Baraldi and Enrico Zio

Journal of Risk and Reliability, 2012, vol. 226, issue 6, 656-665

Abstract: Uncertainty importance measures typically reflect the degree to which uncertainty about risk and reliability parameters at the component level influences uncertainty about parameters at the system level. The definition of these measures is typically founded on a Bayesian perspective where subjective probabilities are used to express epistemic uncertainty; hence, they do not reflect the effect of imprecision in probability assignments, as captured by alternative uncertainty representation frameworks such as imprecise probability, possibility theory and evidence theory. In the present article, we define an imprecision importance measure to evaluate the effect of removing imprecision to the extent that a probabilistic representation of uncertainty remains, as well as to the extent that no epistemic uncertainty remains. Possibility theory is highlighted throughout the article as an example of an uncertainty representation reflecting imprecision, and used in particular in two numerical examples that are included for illustration.

Keywords: Imprecision; importance measure; epistemic uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1748006X12467591 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:risrel:v:226:y:2012:i:6:p:656-665

DOI: 10.1177/1748006X12467591

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Risk and Reliability
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().