Long-Term Forecasts for International Tourism

Egon Smeral
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Egon Smeral: Austrian Institute of Economic Research, PO Box 91, 1103 Vienna, Austria, and Institute of Management, Service Economics and Tourism, University of Innsbruck, Universitätsstraße 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria

Tourism Economics, 2004, vol. 10, issue 2, 145-166

Abstract: Modifications of earlier versions of models to make forecasts for world tourism allow us to trace the effects of changes in income and prices produced by and in each individual country considered in this model. At the theoretical level, in using a share approach these models could be viewed as similar to partial demand models based on the assumption of a multi-stage budgeting process. The new WTTOUR-2001 model is used to generate long-term forecasts of tourism imports and exports for 25 countries for the period up to 2020. It allows a more realistic simulation of the impact of political events such as the enlargement of the European Union.

Keywords: imports; exports; partial models; forecasts; EU enlargement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:toueco:v:10:y:2004:i:2:p:145-166

DOI: 10.5367/000000004323142461

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