Forecasting Tourism-Generated Employment: The Case of Denmark

Stephen F. Witt, Haiyan Song and Stephen Wanhill
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Stephen F. Witt: School of Management, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH, UK
Haiyan Song: School of Management, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey GU2 7XH, UK
Stephen Wanhill: International Centre for Tourism and Hospitality Research, Bournemouth University, Talbot Campus, Fern Barrow, Poole, BH12 5BB, UK

Tourism Economics, 2004, vol. 10, issue 2, 167-176

Abstract: The empirical results from a forecasting competition show that the unrestricted vector autoregressive model is likely to generate the most accurate forecasts of international tourist expenditure in Denmark. This model is therefore estimated (using data for 1969–99) and is used to generate tourism expenditure forecasts for Denmark to 2010. The employment requirements (direct, indirect and induced) associated with these expenditure forecasts are then estimated using an input–output model. The forecasts of employment demands are shown across all industrial sectors, and linked to qualifications data in respect of the labour force. The major impacts of foreign tourist expenditure on employment in Denmark occur in the retail, hotel and restaurant sectors. Foreign tourist expenditure is also significantly associated with graduate employment.

Keywords: tourist expenditure forecasts; tourism employment forecasts; vector autoregressive model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:toueco:v:10:y:2004:i:2:p:167-176

DOI: 10.5367/000000004323142407

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