Future Tourists' Characteristics and Decisions: The Use of Genetic Algorithms as a Forecasting Method

Montserrat Hernández-López
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Montserrat Hernández-López: Department of Institutional Economics, Economic Statistics and Econometrics, University of La Laguna, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Campus de Guajara, 38071 La Laguna, Tenerife, Islas Canarias, Spain

Tourism Economics, 2004, vol. 10, issue 3, 245-262

Abstract: This paper applies genetic algorithms to tourism forecasting. To date, genetic algorithms have normally been used as an optimization method. Their application to forecasting with real-world data has not been studied extensively. The paper illustrates how genetic algorithms can be used for this purpose and the new kind of forecast that is obtained. Specifically, the algorithms are applied to a real tourist population, and the characteristics and decisions of each future tourist are forecast. The results suggest that tourism forecasting based on genetic algorithms could reduce the risk of decision making in tourism planning.

Keywords: genetic algorithms; forecasting; tourist characteristics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:toueco:v:10:y:2004:i:3:p:245-262

DOI: 10.5367/0000000041895058

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