Unveiling endogeneity and temporal dependence between tourism revenues/expenditures and macroeconomic variables in Brazil: A stochastic hidden Markov model approach

Peter Wanke, Otávio Henrique dos Santos Figueiredo and Jorge Junio Moreira Antunes
Additional contact information
Peter Wanke: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Otávio Henrique dos Santos Figueiredo: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Jorge Junio Moreira Antunes: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Tourism Economics, 2019, vol. 25, issue 1, 3-21

Abstract: Thus far, a comprehensive analysis on the feedback processes that may exist between macroeconomic variables and tourism activity in Brazil is still missing. This article fills this literature gap by analyzing the endogenous and temporally dependent pattern between Brazilian monthly tourism revenue/expenditures and macroeconomic variables over 20 years. A novel stochastic hidden Markov model approach reveals the feedback processes that exist between them. While tourism revenues are autocorrelated and impacted by gross domestic product (GDP) growth, tourism expenditures are detached from any macroeconomic variable, but are rather directly dependent on tourism revenues past performance, which also exert an impact on exchange rates and GDP growth, thus indirectly benefiting tourism expenditures abroad. Policy implications in terms of a specific tourism exchange rate for Brazil are derived in order to sustain tourism expenditures apart from tourism revenue flows.

Keywords: bootstrapped VAR models; feedback processes; macroeconomic variables; stochastic HMM; tourism activity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1354816618787578 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:toueco:v:25:y:2019:i:1:p:3-21

DOI: 10.1177/1354816618787578

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Tourism Economics
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().