Natural Disaster Exposure and Climate Change Beliefs

Valentina Peruzzi, Maria Luisa Signore and Salvatore Vergine

No 273, Working Papers in Public Economics from Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome

Abstract: This paper investigates how direct exposure to climate-related natural disasters shapes the evolution of climate change beliefs over time. Using survey data collected through face-to-face interviews in Italy, we analyze perceived climate change severity across three temporal horizons (past, present, and future), accounting for heterogeneity in individual characteristics. We first provide regression-based evidence on the relationship between disaster exposure and perceived severity. We then examine belief updating dynamics by estimating non-homogeneous Markov transition matrices conditional on individual traits. Our findings show that exposure to natural disasters is associated with higher climate-related concern and greater persistence in high-severity belief states. Belief updating is heterogeneous: younger and risk-loving individuals tend to revise their perceptions more sharply following exposure, whereas older or risk-averse respondents display more gradual updating patterns.

Keywords: Natural disasters; Climate change beliefs; Field study; Markov model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 C93 D83 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31
Date: 2026-02
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