Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches

S. Adnan H. A. S. Bukhari () and Safdar Ullah Khan ()
Additional contact information
S. Adnan H. A. S. Bukhari: Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi
Safdar Ullah Khan: Bond University, Queensland, Australia.

SBP Research Bulletin, 2008, vol. 4, 31-60

Abstract: The objective of this study is to estimate potential output vis-à-vis output gap for Pakistan’s economy. It applies six commonly-used techniques to estimate potential output and from that the output gap. The results suggest that while these estimates are not the same they nonetheless do show some degree of association among each other. Therefore, a composite output gap is calculated for 1950 to 2007 that depicts that Pakistan economy has been observing a cyclical episode of excess supply followed by excess demand. Evidence further suggests that Pakistan is currently experiencing rising demand pressures since Fiscal Year 2005 and these pressures show a high degree of correlation with inflation.

Keywords: Gross domestic product; potential output; output gap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sbp.org.pk/research/bulletin/2008/vol4/ ... cal%20Approaches.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy:Structural and Statistical Approaches (2008)
Working Paper: Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches (2008)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sbp:journl:32

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in SBP Research Bulletin from State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Faisal Saleem ().