Robust investment policies with bound forecasts

Nalan Gulpinar and Berc Rustem

No 68, Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 from Society for Computational Economics

Abstract: We present a continuous minimax model for robust portfolio optimization based on worst-case analysis. The classical Markowitz framework is extended to continuous minimax with upper and lower bounds on the return scenarios and a discrete number of rival risk scenarios. The model integrates benchmark relative computations in view of scalable (not fixed) transaction costs. It evaluates worst-case optimal strategies in view of upper and lower bounds on forecast return and a discrete set of risk scenarios. Robustness arises from the non-inferiority of the min-max strategy. The robust optimal policies are obtained simultaneously with the worst-case scenario. We apply the model to a selection of investment problem and evaluate the ex-ante performance of the strategy using historical data.

Keywords: Continuous minimax; rival scenarios; portfolio optimization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-08-11
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sce:scecf4:68

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