Synergetic method of a quantitative forecasting of economictimes series

Bystray Genadiy Pavlovich, Kuklin Aleksandr Anatolyevich, Lykov Ivan Aleksandrovich and Nikulina Natalya Leonidovna
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Kuklin Aleksandr Anatolyevich: Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Lykov Ivan Aleksandrovich: Yeltsyn Ural Federal University
Nikulina Natalya Leonidovna: Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Экономика региона, 2013, issue 4 (36), 250-259

Abstract: In the article, a synergetic method of the economic time series forecasting on the basis of the modified method of Hurst is discussed. It is a new nonlinear method of predicting the development of economic systems according to time series on macroand mesolevels. The main theorem underlying the forecasting method is formulated and strictly proved: for a chaotic series of a particular length it is possible to specify a time interval where the series is reliably predicted with the Hurst exponent more than 0.5. The examples of the fractal characteristics’ calculation and the forecasting taking into account time of reliable forecast of the socioeconomic indexes’ behavior oil prices, natural gas prices, the Dow Jones index, the «euro-dollar» prices, the Gross Domestic Product, and some other indicators at the regional level are given. All calculations are carried out by means of the specialized software product upgraded for the task solution set in this article.

Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:scn:015306:15058139

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