Modelling the state of social-economic environment under the conditions of uncertainty

Poletaikin A.N.
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Poletaikin A.N.: Siberian State University of Telecommunications and Information Science

Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, 2016, vol. 52, issue 4, 47-58

Abstract: The article covers the hybrid approach to the modeling of the state of social-economic environment under the conditions of uncertainty based on the fuzzy simulation-optimization model with the use of compromise mechanism by the determination of the consumer's satisfaction level. The process of goods promotion to the market has been chosen as the social-economic process of interest; it is a multidimensional process, tightly connected with the registration and processing of social and economic information that represents the set of phenomena, events and facts taking place in the social-economic environment of the market. While conducting the research the hypothesis has been developed and confirmed that the uncertainty and inconsistency of the initial data can be extinguished with the help of the apparatus of fuzzy logic by forming the fuzzy knowledge base of the intelligent system of decision making support and the use of the knowledge for forming the meanings of the main parameters of the goods realization process used in optimal decision making by the goods promotion to the consumer. The proposed hybrid model based on the hard formalized initial data develops the forecast of goods realization to the consumer that is optimal according to the social and economic indexes. The efficiency of the use of the developed model is confirmed by the research of its functioning efficiency in the structure of the system of decision making support.

Keywords: GOOD PROMOTION TO THE MARKET; GOODS REALIZATION; SOCIAL-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT; SIMULATION-OPTIMIZATION APPROACH; FUZZY MODELING; FUZZY KNOWLEDGE BASE; HYBRID MODEL; FUNCTIONING EFFICIENCY; COMPROMISE DECISIONS; SYSTEM OF DECISION MAKING SUPPORT (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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