Guaranteed Minimum Income and Fertility

Giuselle Pio Dachille (), Maria De Paola () and Roberto Nisticò ()
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Giuselle Pio Dachille: INPS, Rome, https://www.inps.it/
Maria De Paola: University of Calabria, INPS Direzione Centrale Studi e Ricerche, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Roberto Nisticò: University of Naples Federico II, Department of Economics and Statistics, and CSEF, https://csef.it/people/roberto-nistico/

CSEF Working Papers from Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy

Abstract: We study the fertility effects of Italy’s Reddito di Cittadinanza (RdC), a national minimum income program introduced in 2019. Exploiting administrative data from the Italian Social Security Institute and a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, we document that RdC increased recipients’ childbirth probability by 1.5 percentage points (18%) over two years in the South, with no effect in the Centre-North. Labor supply declined by 10%, but only in the Centre-North. Regional heterogeneity reflects differences in gender norms, financial constraints, and opportunity costs of child bearing. Our findings highlight how income transfers interact with local context to shape demographic and labor market behavior.

Keywords: Fertility; Guaranteed Minimum Income; RDD (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 H53 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-09-01
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