Quantifying uncertainty: a new era of measurement through large language models

Francesco Audrino, Jessica Gentner and Simon Stalder

No 2024-12, Working Papers from Swiss National Bank

Abstract: This paper presents an innovative method for measuring uncertainty via large language models (LLMs), which offer greater precision and contextual sensitivity than the conventional methods used to construct prominent uncertainty indices. By analysing newspaper texts with state-of-the-art LLMs, our approach captures nuances often missed by conventional methods. We develop indices for various types of uncertainty, including geopolitical risk, economic policy, monetary policy, and financial market uncertainty. Our findings show that shocks to these LLM-based indices exhibit stronger associations with macroeconomic variables, shifts in investor behaviour, and asset return variations than conventional indices, underscoring their potential for more accurately reflecting uncertainty.

Keywords: Uncertainty measurement; Large language models; Economic policy; Geopolitical risk; Monetary policy; Financial markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C45 C55 E44 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 54 pages
Date: 2024
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ain, nep-big, nep-cmp, nep-inv and nep-rmg
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Working Paper: Quantifying Uncertainty: A New Era of Measurement through Large Language Models (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2024-12

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