Türkiye’de Dolarizasyon Süreci ve Döviz Kuru Belirsizliği İlişkisi

Erşan Sever

Sosyoekonomi Journal, 2012, issue 17(17)

Abstract: This paper has investigated the relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and dollarization in Turkey by applying Granger causality test for the period 1989:12–2010:12 and the sub-period 2001:02–2010:12 exchange rate uncertainty was determined by using exponential GARCH mean (EGARCH-M) method. According to the empirical findings of the Granger causality test, two-way relationship between dollarization and exchange rate uncertainty continues up to sixth lag in the period 1989:12-2010:12. But causality from dollarization to exchange rate uncertainty is stronger. After the sixth lag, dollarization leads to the exchange rate uncertainty. Furthermore, oneway causal relationship from dollarization to exchange rate uncertainty has been detected for the period from 2001:02 to 2010:12 during which flexible exchange rate policy was implemented.

Keywords: Turkey; Dollarization; Exchange Rate Uncertainty; EGARCH-M. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sos:sosjrn:120109

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