From Geopolitics to Market Sentiment: Explaining Tin Price Bubbles with GSADF Approach

Jinglin Zhao and Qiulin Yang ()
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Jinglin Zhao: The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), School of Humanities and Social Science
Qiulin Yang: Shenzhen Technology University, Business School

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2026 11th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2026), 2026, pp 450-459 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract With the rapid development of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, the strategic importance of tin has become increasingly prominent. In recent years, the persistent imbalance between tin supply and demand has attracted widespread attention in global markets. This paper examines the formation and dissipation of speculative price bubbles in the tin market, investigating the underlying drivers that contribute to these phenomena. Using daily futures settlement prices from April 1, 2015, to June 30, 2025, obtained from the WIND database, this paper applies the Generalised Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) method to detect periodic bubble behaviour in tin prices empirically. It analyses the driving mechanisms by tracing the temporal evolution of these bubbles. The results indicate that three categories of factors primarily drive bubble formation: (1) geopolitical risks, (2) domestic macroeconomic policies and institutional arrangements, and (3) social and market behaviours. These factors indirectly fuel tin price surges by influencing supply or demand dynamics. Moreover, emotional volatility in financial markets and the amplification of irrational economic behaviour contribute to the accumulation and expansion of price bubbles.

Keywords: Tin; Nonferrous Metal; Price Bubbles; GSADF (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6239-642-5_44

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