The Rise of Peripheral Economies under Geopolitical Conflict and Supply Chain Restructuring as Evidenced by a Quasi-Natural Experiment in Vietnam

Yuxuan Zhang and Yangxin Wang ()
Additional contact information
Yuxuan Zhang: Bangor College, Central South University of Forestry and Technology
Yangxin Wang: Bangor College, Central South University of Forestry and Technology

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2026 11th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2026), 2026, pp 631-636 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Against the backdrop of deglobalization and intensified great power competition, global supply chains are undergoing profound structural adjustments. Using the latest cross-country panel data from Wind, this paper treats the 2018 US-China trade friction as an exogenous shock, employing the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method with Driscoll-Kraay robust standard errors to evaluate the net effect on Vietnam’s economic growth as an “alternative manufacturing base.” The findings indicate: The trade war significantly promoted Vietnam’s economic growth, increasing its real GDP per capita by approximately 15.7% relative to the counterfactual scenario; Dynamic effect tests show that this dividend is persistent and cumulative, peaking in 2022, verifying the time-lag effect of industrial chain transfer; Placebo tests further rule out the interference of global common shocks. This study suggests that during periods of rising geopolitical uncertainty, peripheral economies with strong absorption capacity can achieve catch-up growth through the “friend-shoring” of supply chains.

Keywords: US-China Trade War; Vietnam Economy; Supply Chain Restructuring; DID; Regional Development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:advbcp:978-94-6239-642-5_62

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9789462396425

DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6239-642-5_62

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().