A Quantitative Analysis of Trade Flow Determinants Between China and Belt and Road Initiative Partner Countries

Yijia Peng ()
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Yijia Peng: International Economics and Trade College, Central University of Finance and Economics

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2026 4th International Conference on Digital Economy and Management Science (CDEMS 2026), 2026, pp 386-391 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has significantly reshaped the global trade landscape. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the changing macroeconomic factors that drive bilateral trade flows. This study focuses on identifying the main determinants of trade flows between China and its major BRI partners, particularly Pakistan and Kazakhstan, from 2015 to 2025. The study collects relevant data from the World Bank, the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade), and the Ministry of Commerce, and conducts an analysis. A random effects gravity model is adopted, and the outward direct investment (ODI) is subjected to an inverse hyperbolic sine transformation. Three main conclusions are drawn from this study. First, the growth of a partner country’s economic scale is the most important driving force for expanding bilateral trade. Second, despite improvements in transportation infrastructure, geographical distance remains a structural barrier to the growth of trade volume. Third, although China’s GDP, ODI, and free trade agreements have a positive guiding effect on bilateral trade, their immediate statistical significance in this specific group of countries is weak, indicating policy lags and investment implementation cycles.

Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative; Gravity Model; Trade Flows; Outward Direct Investment; Random Effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:advbcp:978-94-6239-699-9_41

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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6239-699-9_41

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