Real estate price prediction in Nanning based on grey model

Hao Cheng (), Jian Yang, Chengyuan Fan, Hengfeng Xiang, Wenli Zhou and Ren Lin
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Hao Cheng: Guilin University of Electronic Technology, School of Computer Science and Information Security
Jian Yang: Guilin University of Electronic Technology, School of Mathematics and Computing Science
Chengyuan Fan: Guilin University of Electronic Technology, School of Computer Science and Information Security
Hengfeng Xiang: Guilin University of Electronic Technology, School of Electronic Engineering and Automation
Wenli Zhou: Guilin University of Electronic Technology, School of Computer Science and Information Security
Ren Lin: Guilin University of Electronic Technology, School of Mathematics and Computing Science

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2023 International Conference on Management Innovation and Economy Development (MIED 2023), 2024, pp 575-583 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract With the rapid development of society and economy, the development of the real estate industry has always been in a leading position, but the change of housing prices has led to housing problems affecting every Chinese people. This paper predicts the trend of real estate prices in Nanning in the next 10 years. Firstly, a grey model is established, the simulation sequence is obtained by substituting the serial number of the relevant year, and the predicted value is compared with the original value by the posterior difference test method. Then, a grey GM(1, 1) model is established for the four main factors affecting housing prices respectively to predict the statistical values of these four factors in the next ten years. For the overfitting phenomenon existing in the prediction of some factors, linear regression fitting is used to predict the data in the next ten years after verifying the correlation. Finally, GM(0, N) estimation formula is used to forecast the real estate price in Nanning in the next ten years.

Keywords: linear regression moving average method GM(0; N) model posterior difference test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-260-6_72

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