Research On the Impact of The Russia-Ukraine Conflict on The Energy Market and The Future Oil Trend

Dilin Tan ()
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Dilin Tan: Wellington College International Tianjin

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2023 International Conference on Economic Management, Financial Innovation and Public Service (EMFIPS 2023), 2024, pp 50-57 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a topical political issue in 2022. This study belongs to the analysis and outlook of the unexpected event. After the event, relevant news reports and scholars’ analysis mainly focus on the following aspects: 1. The description and analysis of the process of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 2. The study of analysis on sanctions and counter-sanctions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 3. The analysis related to the energy transition in Europe. This study corroborates the law of influence of similar geopolitical events (such as the Gulf War and the Iraq War, etc.) on oil prices proposed by scholars before, and on this basis, the degree and direction of the role of sudden geopolitical events affecting the change of international oil prices is somewhat revised in the light of the actual Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This study aims to analyzes two aspects: first, how the Russian-Ukrainian conflict affects the international energy market, such as the extent of the impact, the continuity of the impact, etc. Second, how the future trend of international oil prices will be affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in order to make a reasonable forecast of the trend of international oil price changes in the next 3-5 years. The study found that at present, the strength of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the international crude oil market is gradually digested and fully released, and the international energy market reverts to a short-term equilibrium. Looking ahead, with the general recovery of the global economy after the COVID-19 pandemic, the accelerated pace of energy transition in Europe, and the continued recovery of Russian export volume, it is expected that the international oil prices in the next 3-4 years will show a trend of narrow oscillation and slow rise after the superposition of positive and negative factors.

Keywords: Russia-Ukraine Conflict; Russian-Ukrainian War; Energy Market; Energy Supply; International Oil Price; Russia Oil Export; Crude Oil Price (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-441-9_6

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