Diagnostic Analysis Of Market Sentiment towards the Merger of PT XL Axiata Tbk and PT Smartfren Telecom Tbk Using the Naive Bayes Algorithm

Ida Bagus Gede Dananjaya (), Usahana Wiguna Eka Saputra, Made Andy Pradana Sukarta, Ida Bagus Sanjaya and Sang Nyoman Bagus Satya Wira
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Ida Bagus Gede Dananjaya: Bali State Polytechnic, Business Administration
Usahana Wiguna Eka Saputra: Bali State Polytechnic, Business Administration
Made Andy Pradana Sukarta: Bali State Polytechnic, Accounting Department
Ida Bagus Sanjaya: Bali State Polytechnic, Business Administration
Sang Nyoman Bagus Satya Wira: Bali State Polytechnic, Tourism Department

A chapter in Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Science and Technology on Social Science 2025 (iCAST-SS 2025), 2025, pp 491-500 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This study aims to analyze market sentiment towards the merger between PT XL Axiata Tbk and PT Smartfren Telecom Tbk using the Naive Bayes algorithm. Mergers are corporate actions that often influence market perception and investor decisions. In this context, market sentiment reflected through social media, particularly Twitter, is an important indicator for understanding public reaction to this corporate action. The collected tweet data was analyzed using the Naive Bayes algorithm to classify sentiment as positive or negative. Then, a diagnostic analysis was conducted to determine the cause of the sentiment by referring to the merger’s objective metrics. The resultsBased on the modeling results using the naive bayes algorithm with the CRISP-DM method, market sentiment towards the merger of PT. XL Axiata and PT. Smartfren is Positive 24, Neutral 317 and Negative 67, these results can be used as an alternative in making investment decisions. The diagnostic analysis results of market sentiment regarding the Merger of PT. XL Axiata and PT. Smartfren show that Technology Access is a critical area: Many hopes (positive), but more disappointments (negative). Reputation needs attention: Negative sentiment is 7x higher than positive. Market Expansion is relatively safe, but Operational Synergy has less impact (low positive/negative).

Keywords: CRISP-DM; Diagnostic Analysis; Merger; Naïve Bayes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-938-4_56

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