Analysis And Forecasting of Inflation Rate in Indonesia

Revi Anggreni (), Ayu Wulandari and Agung Rizki Putra
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Revi Anggreni: University of Bangka Belitung, Faculty of Economics and Business
Ayu Wulandari: University of Bangka Belitung, Faculty of Economics and Business
Agung Rizki Putra: University of Bangka Belitung, Faculty of Economics and Business

A chapter in Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference of Economics, Management, Accounting, and Business Digital (ICEMAB 2025), 2025, pp 4-11 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This study aims to forecast the inflation rate in Indonesia for the period from January 2025 to December 2027. The analytical method used is SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). The data consist of monthly inflation figures from 34 provinces in Indonesia, obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), covering the period from January 2020 to December 2024. The results show that each region has distinct inflation patterns, leading to varied SARIMA models. Several regions exhibit strong seasonal patterns, particularly at the 12th lag. Based on the analysis, Papua and Maluku tend to have higher monthly inflation rates, while provinces such as DKI Jakarta and West Java show more stable and lower inflation. Monthly comparisons between regions indicate regional imbalances influenced by structural and seasonal factors. The best SARIMA model for each region was used to forecast inflation for the next three years. These forecasts are expected to serve as a foundation for formulating more targeted and effective economic policies to control national inflation.

Keywords: Forecasting; SARIMA; Inflation; Indonesia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:advbcp:978-94-6463-974-2_2

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DOI: 10.2991/978-94-6463-974-2_2

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