Examining short-run and long-run nexus between economic growth, financial development, energy consumption and environmental degradation: empirical evidence for the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Egypt

Waqar Khalid (), Ahmad Nawaz (), Lamya Mohamed Aly Gadou (), Saqib Ullah Khan () and Huri Gül Aybudak ()
Additional contact information
Waqar Khalid: National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST)
Ahmad Nawaz: University of Sahiwal
Lamya Mohamed Aly Gadou: Zagagig University
Saqib Ullah Khan: Université d’Angers
Huri Gül Aybudak: Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University

Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, 2025, vol. 9, issue 2, No 6, 479-511

Abstract: Abstract The growing environmental challenges faced by Egypt highlight a need to examine how key macroeconomic factors influence environmental sustainability. In response, this research analyzes the short-run and long-run effects of economic growth, financial development, and energy consumption on environmental degradation in Egypt. Using annual time-series data from 1960 to 2022, we employ the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology and Error Correction Model (ECM) to assess the short-run and long-run effects of these macroeconomic factors on environmental degradation. Additionally, Granger causality tests are applied to explore causal linkages among the variables, while the Cholesky variance decomposition method estimates the proportionate impact of shocks on CO2 emissions. The results revealed that, in the short-run, energy consumption, financial development, urbanization, and economic growth negatively impacted environmental quality, whereas trade openness and the squared term of economic growth improved it. In the long-run, however, all variables—except for the squared term of economic growth—contributed to increased CO2 emissions. Furthermore, the study identified significant bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption. Variance decomposition estimates indicate that economic growth and trade openness are primary drivers of CO2 emissions in Egypt, accounting for 28.45% and 20.11% of the observed variation, respectively. These findings suggest that Egypt’s economic growth and international trade are pollution-intensive, highlighting the need for targeted policy interventions. We recommend the promotion of a clean energy transition through environmental awareness campaigns, investments in renewable energy technologies, financial sector reforms, and the development of sustainable urban infrastructure to support low-carbon economic growth and enhance environmental sustainability.

Keywords: Environmental degradation; Economic growth; Financial development; Energy consumption; Sustainable development; ARDL; Egypt (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C51 E21 G28 O13 Q43 Q56 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41685-025-00371-z Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:apjors:v:9:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s41685-025-00371-z

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.springer ... cience/journal/41685

DOI: 10.1007/s41685-025-00371-z

Access Statistics for this article

Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science is currently edited by Yoshiro Higano

More articles in Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().