Eco-welfare States and Just Transitions: A Multi-method Analysis and Research Agenda

Matt Wilder (), Ruth Rosalle and Alyssa Bishop
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Matt Wilder: University of Toronto
Ruth Rosalle: University of Toronto
Alyssa Bishop: University of Toronto

Circular Economy and Sustainability, 2024, vol. 4, issue 3, 2241-2265

Abstract: Abstract This paper critically examines the literature on eco-welfare states and just transitions, laying the groundwork for a comprehensive multi-method research agenda. Whereas previous research has found mixed evidence on the relationship between welfare states and environmental performance, this study finds synergy between welfare and environmental variables. It also offers explanations for residual variance, both between countries and within countries over time, by considering how structural and institutional features of the political economy influence policy interventions and behaviour. The main finding is that a country’s level of welfare state robustness matters more for environmental performance than its trend toward welfare state entrenchment or retrenchment over time. Using a novel time-variant measure of welfare state robustness and hierarchical mixed-effects modelling, it is shown that countries with robust welfare states emit significantly less CO2 on average than countries with weak welfare states. However, change in welfare state robustness within countries over time is not a significant predictor of emissions reductions. High level comparative case analysis of Denmark and the United Kingdom sheds explanatory light on causal mechanisms, as both jurisdictions have achieved significant CO2 reductions despite different welfare policy profiles, structural circumstances, and institutional arrangements. Two main causal drivers are identified: compensation and executive action that imposes transition costs. Implications for governance of just transitions are discussed in the context of an empirically-oriented research agenda dedicated to assessing relationships between elements in causal chains and measuring discrete effects of policy interventions.

Keywords: Climate Change; Eco-welfare States; Just Transitions; Mixed Methods; Sustainability; Welfare State Retrenchment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D63 H23 I38 J48 N5 P51 Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s43615-024-00359-5

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