Modeling factions for “effects based operations”: part I—leaders and followers

Barry G. Silverman (), Gnana Bharathy, Benjamin Nye and Roy J. Eidelson
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Barry G. Silverman: University of Pennsylvania
Gnana Bharathy: University of Pennsylvania
Benjamin Nye: University of Pennsylvania
Roy J. Eidelson: University of Pennsylvania

Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, 2007, vol. 13, issue 4, No 3, 379-406

Abstract: Abstract This paper presents a synthetic approach for generating role playing simulation games intended to support analysts (and trainees) interested in testing alternative competing courses of action (operations) and discovering what effects they are likely to precipitate in potential ethno-political conflict situations. Simulated leaders and followers capable of playing these games are implemented in a cognitive modeling framework, called PMFserv, which covers value systems, personality and cultural factors, emotions, relationships, perception, stress/coping style and decision making. Of direct interest, as Sect. 1.1 explains, is mathematical representation and synthesis of best-of-breed behavioral science models within this framework to reduce dimensionality and to improve the realism and internal validity of the agent implementations. Sections 2 and 3 present this for leader profiling instruments and group membership decision-making, respectively. Section 4 serves as an existence proof that the framework has generated several training and analysis tools, and Sect. 5 concludes with lessons learned. Part II turns to the question of assessment of the synthesis and its usage in course of action studies.

Keywords: Leaders and followers; Strategy games; Personality and culture; Agent-based simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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DOI: 10.1007/s10588-007-9017-8

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