Factors Affecting Consumers’ Inflation Expectations in EU Members States with Independent Monetary Policy

Magdalena Szyszko () and Aleksandra Rutkowska ()
Additional contact information
Magdalena Szyszko: WSB University in Poznan
Aleksandra Rutkowska: Poznan University of Economics and Business

A chapter in Economic Development and Financial Markets, 2020, pp 81-100 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In the light of the research which proves that inflation expectations cannot be fully explained by inflation itself, a question about the possible drivers of expectations arises. In this paper, we look for such drivers with the use of the cointegration analysis. We assume that some economic information is incorporated into a mechanism that explains their changes and long-run development (1) and that the drivers of expectations vary across countries (2). The research covers eight non-euro area EU Member States and the time span of years 2001–2016. We distinguish six monetary, financial, and real sphere factors that could affect expectations, and we elaborate on VECMs for each country, respectively, to analyse short- and long-run dependence of variables. We find that long-run relations do exist between variables as well as—in certain cases—short-run relations. The number of variables and the lags suggested by the information criteria lead to relatively complex models, which means that they are difficult to interpret directly. As a result, we propose further research with respect to the same dataset.

Keywords: Inflation expectations; Consumers; VECM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:conchp:978-3-030-32426-1_5

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783030324261

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-32426-1_5

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Contributions to Economics from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().