Measuring risk attitude: the results of the combined experimental and survey research

Paweł Kuśmierczyk, Radosław Kurach () and Marek Kośny
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Paweł Kuśmierczyk: Wroclaw University of Economics and Business
Radosław Kurach: Wroclaw University of Economics and Business
Marek Kośny: Wroclaw University of Economics and Business

DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, 2025, vol. 52, issue 3, No 6, 333-354

Abstract: Abstract Risk attitude is one of the most significant characteristics influencing the decisions of economic agents; consequently, economists employ various methods to measure and model its role in the decision-making process. This paper presents the results of a simultaneous elicitation of experimental and non-experimental measures of risk attitudes, enabling verification of their cross-validity. Our analysis is conducted on a nationwide, representative sample of Poles, which significantly enhances the robustness of our findings. Drawing on a large sample, the incentivised experiment provides unique empirical evidence on the distribution of risk attitudes within the general population. Using combined methods of analysis also made it possible to examine the role of demographic characteristics in shaping risk attitudes and test the external validity of both methods. Our findings reveal that, regardless of the measure employed, most Poles are risk-averse, and there is considerable heterogeneity in risk attitudes. In terms of external validity, a simple self-assessment of one’s risk attitude demonstrates greater predictive power for a broad range of declared behaviours, though its interpretation can be puzzling in certain cases. Conversely, the incentivised risk attitude measure outperforms the self-assessment in predicting gambling choices in lotteries.

Keywords: Risk attitude; Elicitation methods; Field experiment; Survey; External validity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C83 C93 D14 D80 G51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s40622-025-00431-5

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