The Role of Probability Information and Choice Complexity in Demand for Crop Insurance under Climate Change

Roy Brouwer (), Haiyan Liu, Francisco Alcón, Peter Robinson and Wouter Botzen
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Roy Brouwer: University of Waterloo
Haiyan Liu: University of Waterloo
Francisco Alcón: Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena
Peter Robinson: Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Wouter Botzen: Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 2025, vol. 9, issue 3, No 6, 519-546

Abstract: Abstract This study examines how probabilistic information about increasing extreme weather events under climate change influences farmers’ demand for crop insurance. Using split samples, the effect of a probability attribute to describe future extreme weather events is tested in a choice experiment, accounting for attribute attendance and choice complexity. Probability neglect is expected under existing low probability-high impact conditions, and attribute non-attendance is indeed highest for this attribute. Adding the probability information furthermore significantly increases choice complexity, resulting in status-quo bias and a significantly lower demand and willingness to pay for crop insurance. At the same time the information about future extreme weather events increases, as expected based on prospective reference theory, farmers’ preferences for damage coverage. Higher probabilities of extreme weather events yield significantly higher demand for crop insurance, possibly due to risk perception updating in response to the provided probability information.

Keywords: Choice experiment; Crop insurance; Risk communication; Probability neglect; Choice complexity; Attribute attendance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s41885-025-00180-w

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