Water yield of the Volta Basin under future land use and climate change

Daniel Mawuko Ocloo ()
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Daniel Mawuko Ocloo: University of Tsukuba

Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, 2025, vol. 27, issue 1, No 89, 2523-2548

Abstract: Abstract With rapid land use land cover (LULC) and climate change, it is important to study the performance of basins in terms of water yield under future LULC and climate change. Studies of the Volta Basin on water yield have been conducted at the sub-basin level, but a global-scale study has not been fully explored. The study used the InVEST tool to analyze the Volta Basin's water yield based on past and future LULC and shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. The CA–Markov model simulated land use changes for 2030 and 2040. From 1985 to 2020, built-up areas, croplands, and open forests increased, while grasslands, shrublands, and closed forests decreased. The predicted LULC indicates increased croplands, built-up areas, open forests, and bare areas from 1985 to 2040. Grassland, closed forest, and shrubland areas decreased. Precipitation was highest under SSP2-4.5 and lowest under SSP5-8.5, while temperature and PET peaked under SSP3-7.0 and dipped under SSP2-4.5. Annual water yield increased from 1985 to 2020, with the highest in 2020 and lowest in 1995. Water land use contributed most to mean water yield, while grassland contributed the least under all SSPs. SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 recorded the highest and lowest yields respectively. The southern sub-basins had the highest values. Precipitation positively correlated (0.56) with water yield, while temperature (0.42) and PET (0.46) negatively correlated. Spatial water yield results can highlight vulnerable areas, guide management, and shape adaptation measures. It also shows InVEST's effectiveness in modeling the Volta Basin's water yield.

Keywords: Water yield; Volta Basin; LULC; InVEST; Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); CA-Markov (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10668-023-03977-5

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