Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries

Maarten Alders (), Nico Keilman () and Harri Cruijsen ()
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Maarten Alders: Statistics Netherlands
Nico Keilman: University of Oslo
Harri Cruijsen: DEMOCAST

European Journal of Population, 2007, vol. 23, issue 1, No 2, 33-69

Abstract: Abstract The aim of the ‘Uncertain Population of Europe’(UPE) project was to compute long-term stochastic (probabilistic) population forecasts for 18 European countries. We developed a general methodology for constructing predictive distributions for fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions underlying stochastic population forecasts can be assessed by analysing errors in past forecasts or model-based estimates of forecast errors, or by expert judgement. All three approaches have been used in the project. This article summarizes and discusses the results of the three approaches. It demonstrates how the—sometimes conflicting—results can be synthesized into a consistent set of assumptions about the expected levels and the uncertainty of total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth of men and women, and net migration for 18 European countries.

Keywords: Probabilistic forecast; Forecast assumptions; Time series; Empirical errors; Expert judgement; Scaled model of error; projection stochastique; hypothèses de projection; séries temporelles; jugement expert; modèle des erreurs d’échelle flexible (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4

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