Realised volatility and parametric estimation of Heston SDEs

Robert Azencott (), Peng Ren () and Ilya Timofeyev ()
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Robert Azencott: University of Houston
Peng Ren: University of Houston
Ilya Timofeyev: University of Houston

Finance and Stochastics, 2020, vol. 24, issue 3, No 5, 723-755

Abstract: Abstract We present a detailed analysis of observable moment-based parameter estimators for the Heston SDEs jointly driving the rate of returns ( R t ) $(R_{t})$ and the squared volatilities ( V t ) $(V_{t})$ . Since volatilities are not directly observable, our parameter estimators are constructed from empirical moments of realised volatilities ( Y t ) $(Y_{t})$ , which are of course observable. Realised volatilities are computed over sliding windows of size ε $\varepsilon $ , partitioned into J ( ε ) $J(\varepsilon )$ intervals. We establish criteria for the joint selection of J ( ε ) $J(\varepsilon )$ and of the subsampling frequency of return rates data. We obtain explicit bounds for the L q $L^{q}$ speed of convergence of realised volatilities to true volatilities as ε → 0 $\varepsilon \to 0$ . In turn, these bounds provide also L q $L^{q}$ speeds of convergence of our observable estimators for the parameters of the Heston volatility SDE. Our theoretical analysis is supplemented by extensive numerical simulations of joint Heston SDEs to investigate the actual performances of our moment-based parameter estimators. Our results provide practical guidelines for adequately fitting Heston SDE parameters to observed stock price series.

Keywords: Heston model; Parameter estimation; Realised volatility; Indirect observability; 60J70; 62M20; 62P05 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s00780-020-00427-2

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