Relationship between economic recessions and health inequity: analysis of the gap in life expectancy at birth between Mexican States

Juan Pablo Gutiérrez (), Karina Mendoza (), Armando Sánchez-Vargas () and Stefano M. Bertozzi ()
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Juan Pablo Gutiérrez: National Autonomous University of Mexico
Karina Mendoza: National Autonomous University of Mexico
Armando Sánchez-Vargas: National Autonomous University of Mexico
Stefano M. Bertozzi: University of California

Health Economics Review, 2025, vol. 15, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Objective To estimate the effect of economic recessions on health inequality, with a focus on identifying recessions that have a health component. Methods This retrospective observational study uses the interannual rate of change in gross domestic product (GDP) as an indicator of economic conditions, and life expectancy at birth among Mexican states as a measure of health inequality. We calculated the Gini coefficient of life expectancy for the period 1980 to 2021 and examined its relationship with identified recessions through graphical analysis and an interrupted time series model. Results The disparity in life expectancy at birth between states decreased over the study period. However, the Gini coefficient of life expectancy showed an inverse relationship with the interannual rate of GDP change, indicating increased inequality during economic recessions, with the most pronounced effect observed during the COVID-19-associated recession in 2020. Conclusion Economic recessions have detrimental effects on health, exacerbating pre-existing inequalities. It is crucial to implement protection mechanisms targeted at socially vulnerable populations to mitigate these effects and prevent the widening of health inequalities.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1186/s13561-025-00618-7

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