Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms

Jo-An Atkinson (), Dylan Knowles, John Wiggers, Michael Livingston, Robin Room, Ante Prodan, Geoff McDonnell, Eloise O’Donnell, Sandra Jones, Paul S. Haber, David Muscatello, Nadine Ezard, Nghi Phung, Louise Freebairn, Devon Indig, Lucie Rychetnik, Jaithri Ananthapavan and Sonia Wutzke
Additional contact information
Jo-An Atkinson: Sax Institute
Dylan Knowles: Sax Institute
John Wiggers: Sax Institute
Michael Livingston: La Trobe University
Robin Room: La Trobe University
Ante Prodan: Sax Institute
Geoff McDonnell: Sax Institute
Eloise O’Donnell: Sax Institute
Sandra Jones: Australian Catholic University
Paul S. Haber: University of Sydney
David Muscatello: University of NSW
Nadine Ezard: University of NSW
Nghi Phung: Drug Health Western Sydney Local Health District
Louise Freebairn: Sax Institute
Devon Indig: Sax Institute
Lucie Rychetnik: Sax Institute
Jaithri Ananthapavan: Deakin University
Sonia Wutzke: Sax Institute

International Journal of Public Health, 2018, vol. 63, issue 4, No 12, 537-546

Abstract: Abstract Objectives Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world. Methods A consortium of Australia’s leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms. As a case study, four policy scenarios were examined. Results A 19.5 ± 2.5% reduction in acute alcohol-related harms was estimated with the implementation of a 3 a.m. licensed venue closing time plus 1 a.m. lockout; and a 9 ± 2.6% reduction in incidence was estimated with expansion of treatment services to reach 20% of heavy drinkers. Combining the two scenarios produced a 33.3 ± 2.7% reduction in the incidence of acute alcohol-related harms, suggesting a synergistic effect. Conclusions This study demonstrates the feasibility of participatory development of a contextually relevant computer simulation model of alcohol-related harms and highlights the value of the approach in identifying potential policy responses that best leverage limited resources.

Keywords: Agent-based modelling; Alcohol-related harm; Prevention policy; Evidence synthesis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s00038-017-1041-y

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