In Pursuit of the Green Transition—Electricity at Any Cost?

Per Fahlén (), Magnus Henrekson and Mats Nilsson ()
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Per Fahlén: Entro Nova, Resele
Mats Nilsson: Södertörn University

A chapter in A Green Entrepreneurial State?, 2026, pp 149-172 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This study critically examines the European Union’s and the United Kingdom’s plans for achieving a fossil-free energy system by 2050, centered on massive electrification and large-scale deployment of wind and solar power. Using empirical trends, cost analyses, and system-function assessments, the authors argue that current strategies underestimate real economic, technical, and social challenges. Three scenarios for meeting 2050 electricity demand are compared: full reliance on renewables; a 50/50 split between wind-solar and nuclear; and predominantly nuclear with limited renewables. Evidence from cross-country data shows that higher shares of weather-dependent generation strongly correlate with higher electricity prices, greater volatility, and increased system integration costs. High renewable shares require extensive backup, storage, and grid reinforcement, raising complexity and environmental impacts. The analysis highlights overlooked costs, such as reduced capacity value, transmission expansion, balancing services, and social externalities including property value losses and biodiversity effects. The authors contend that sustainability must encompass environmental, economic, and social dimensions, warning against equating “renewable” with “sustainable.” They conclude that a technologically diverse, dispatchable-power-based strategy—especially with expanded nuclear power—offers a more robust, cost-effective, and socially acceptable pathway to climate neutrality than a predominant reliance on intermittent renewables.

Keywords: Climate change; Dispatchable electricity; Green transition; Mission-oriented policy; Renewable electricity; Rent-seeking; L26; L52; L70; O38; P11; Q48; Q58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Working Paper: In Pursuit of the Green Transition — Electricity at Any Cost? (2025)
Working Paper: In Pursuit of the Green Transition—Electricity at Any Cost? (2025)
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-15512-2_8

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