Evaluating Health Threats and Health Security Actions Under Uncertainty

Gilberto Montibeller
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Gilberto Montibeller: Loughborough University

Chapter Chapter 9 in Decision Making for Enhanced Health Security, 2022, pp 329-384 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Uncertainty forms a key complexity in any health security decision. Uncertainties arise when the evidence about impacts of health threats is either incomplete or lacking and also from the imprecisions in estimating the future performance of decision alternatives. Here we discuss ways in which we are able to incorporate uncertainty in the evaluation of decision alternatives and in the assessment of health threats. Behavioral studies have observed biases in decision making under uncertainty. Hence, a systematic representation of uncertainties should be executed in order to support experts and decision makers to debias their judgments and make reasoned choices under uncertainty.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-98132-7_9

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