Drawing with Limited Resources: Statistical Modeling of Computer Network Exploitation and Prevention

Philipp Fischer (), Fabian Muhly () and Marcus M. Keupp ()
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Philipp Fischer: Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
Fabian Muhly: Military Academy at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
Marcus M. Keupp: Military Academy at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich

Chapter Chapter 10 in Cyberdefense, 2023, pp 149-162 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract When attackers attempt to exfiltrate information from a computer network, they are faced with a selection problem: They must identify valuable units of information among many irrelevant ones. We model such attacks as repeated urn draws under different distributional patterns, depending on how attackers pursue their operation. Further, we use prospect theory to model risk aversion and overconfidence among attackers. We illustrate the applicability of this model, and we discuss how defenders can use our insights to raise the transaction cost of exfiltration.

Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:isochp:978-3-031-30191-9_10

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-30191-9_10

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