Expert Judgment Based Nuclear Threat Assessment for Vessels Arriving in the US

Jason R. W. Merrick () and Laura A. Albert
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Jason R. W. Merrick: Virginia Commonwealth University
Laura A. Albert: University of Wisconsin-Madison

Chapter Chapter 19 in Elicitation, 2018, pp 495-509 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract We demonstrate the use of extended pairwise comparisons for estimating the relative likelihood that a vessel approaching US waters contains a nuclear threat. We demonstrate an expert judgment based method consisting of a designed set of extended pairwise comparisons and parameter estimation for a predictive probability model using log-linear regression. Results are based on a proof-of-concept questionnaire completed by eight experts in port security. The model and parameter estimates obtained are used to demonstrate the type of predictions that can be obtained.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_19

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