The rural-urban difference in fertility before and after the onset of the two-child policy in China

Kai Hu () and Cuiling Zhang ()
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Kai Hu: East China University of Science and Technology
Cuiling Zhang: China Population and Development Research Centre

Journal of Population Research, 2025, vol. 42, issue 3, No 6, 17 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study investigates differential fertility responses to China’s two-child policy across rural-urban populations, leveraging data from 72,497 internal migrant women (aged 18-40) in the China Migrants Dynamic Survey 2017. By stratifying participants into three HuKou categories (rural, rural-urban, urban), we uncover shifting dynamics: bfore 2014, rural women exhibited significantly higher fertility than urban residents, consistent with historical son preference and policy exemptions; with two-child policy implementation, initially conditional in 2014 and fully liberalized in 2016, urban and rural-urban migrants demonstrated higher fertility behaviours, surpassing rural counterparts. Notably, cohorts born pre-1980 and highly educated individuals show heightened two-child propensity, suggesting age and socioeconomic status modulate policy responsiveness. Despite no restrictions of post-2016 policy, urban migrants retained higher fertility inclinations, implying that enduring structural barriers in rural areas suppressed childbearing behaviours. These findings underscore the need for extended longitudinal assessments to observe policy impacts beyond short-term behavioural shifts.

Keywords: Fertility; Rural-urban difference; Two-child policy; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s12546-025-09378-x

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