Space–Time Dependence in Internal Migration Flows: Evidence for Germany since Re-unification

Timo Mitze

Chapter Chapter 4 in Empirical Modelling in Regional Science, 2012, pp 83-120 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The contribution of this chapter is to analyze the role of network interdependencies in a dynamic panel data model for German internal migration flows since re-unification. So far, a capacious account of spatial patterns in German migration data is still missing in the empirical literature. In the context of this paper, network dependencies are associated with correlations of migration flows strictly attributable to proximate flows in geographic space. Using the neoclassical migration model, we start from its aspatial specification and show by means of residual testing that network dependency effects are highly present. We then construct spatial weighting matrices for our system of interregional flow data and apply spatial regression techniques to properly handle the underlying space–time interrelations. Besides spatial extensions to the Blundell–Bond (1998) system GMM estimator in form of the commonly known spatial lag and unconstrained spatial Durbin model, we also apply system GMM to spatially filtered variables. Finally, combining both approaches to a mixed spatial filtering-regression specification shows a remarkably good performance in terms of capturing spatial dependence in our migration equation and at the same time qualify the model to pass essential IV diagnostic tests. The basic message for future research is that space–time dynamics is highly relevant for modelling German internal migration flows.

Keywords: Spatial Autocorrelation; Migration Flow; Spatial Weighting Matrix; Dynamic Panel Data; Spatial Durbin Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:lnechp:978-3-642-22901-5_4

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-22901-5_4

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