Evolution Analysis Model and Catastrophe Theory Explanation of Shrinking Cities

Xiaoteng Ma, Donghan Meng and Guijun Li ()
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Xiaoteng Ma: Central University of Finance and Economics
Donghan Meng: Central University of Finance and Economics
Guijun Li: Central University of Finance and Economics

A chapter in Proceedings of the 27th International Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate, 2023, pp 649-668 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract With the tremendous changes in the domestic and international environment, the phenomenon of shrinking cities in China has gradually attracted attention. This paper mainly analyzes the law of shrinking cities based on catastrophe theory and system dynamic feedback theory, constructs a research model of shrinking cities to deduce its future development trends based on the ten-year historical development trajectory of shrinking cities. Taking two Chinese shrinking cities as examples, the general laws are deduced from three aspects: manifestation, motivation mechanism and evolution mechanism. The form of urban contraction in China is that the economy shrinks first, then the population shrinks, and finally falls into a vicious circle of low efficiency locking. The main reasons for urban shrinkage are single industrial structure, aging economic structure and blind deindustrialization. China’s shrinking cities are facing long-term, irreversible shrinkage.

Keywords: Shrinking Cities; Evolution Analysis Model; Catastrophe Theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:lnopch:978-981-99-3626-7_50

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DOI: 10.1007/978-981-99-3626-7_50

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