An augmented fourier ARDL analysis of CO2 emission determinants in Spain: the role of growth, innovation, and trade

Irina Georgescu and Jani Kinnunen ()
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Jani Kinnunen: Åbo Akademi University

Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 2025, vol. 18, issue 1, No 12, 22 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study employs the Fourier-augmented ARDL (FARDL) model to explore the determinants of CO2 emissions in Spain over the period 1990–2023. Main variables include GDP per capita, renewable energy consumption (RENC), patent applications (PA), and trade openness (TO). The long-run results indicate that a 1% increase in GDP leads to a 0.35% rise in CO2 emissions, while a 1% increase in RENC reduces emissions by 0.56%. PA contribute to a 0.17% increase in emissions, and TO increases emissions by 0.26%. The short-run analysis shows that a 1% rise in RENC reduces emissions by 0.40%, while PA reduces emissions by 0.16%. In contrast, TO increases emissions by 0.27%. The error correction term of − 0.836 confirms a rapid adjustment toward equilibrium. The findings emphasize the need for renewable energy investment, green innovation policies, and sustainable trade practices to support Spain’s carbon neutrality goals.

Keywords: Economic growth; Patent applications; Trade openness; CO2 emissions; Fourier Augmented-ARDL; JEL classification; Q44; Q43; C22; Q31; F18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s12076-025-00411-4

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