Future agroclimatic suitability for oliviculture in Portugal based on a new high-resolution climate dataset

Teresa R. Freitas (), João A. Santos, António Fernandes, Christoph Menz, Paula Paredes and Helder Fraga
Additional contact information
Teresa R. Freitas: University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, Quinta de Prados
João A. Santos: University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, Quinta de Prados
António Fernandes: University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, Quinta de Prados
Christoph Menz: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e. V, PIK
Paula Paredes: Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa
Helder Fraga: University of Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, Quinta de Prados

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2025, vol. 30, issue 7, No 5, 23 pages

Abstract: Abstract The Mediterranean-type climates on mainland Portugal generally provide suitable conditions for growing olive trees, though climate change may challenge their long-term sustainability. Historical (1995–2014) and projected future scenarios (2041–2060) of agroclimatic indices are developed herein to guide olive orchard (OR) management. Daily simulations from six Global Circulation Models are processed with the CHELSA method, using bias-adjusted ISIMIP3b climate projections based on CMIP6 simulations. Two Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP) are considered: SSP3-7.0 (regional rivalry) and SSP5-8.5 (fossil-fuelled development). Daily data (~ 1 km) are used to calculate the following indices: Consecutive Frost Days (CFD), Spring Heat Day (SPR32), Spring Maximum Temperature (SPRTX), Summer Heat Stress Days (SU40), Total rainfall October–May (WINRR). During the historical period, the North and Centre regions experienced a CFD between 0 and 35, whereas a reduction in CFD up to 9 days and 11 days will be expected under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. In 1995–2014, higher SPR32 (3–12 days) and SPRTX (20–24 °C) are recorded in the inner southern regions, increasing to 24 days and 26 °C, respectively, under SSP5-8.5. In these areas, SU40 could reach 24 days in the future. WINRR will decrease by 100–140 mm (7% of the area), particularly in southern regions. The southern regions will be particularly exposed to high temperatures and low rainfall, while phenological timings and yields may be significantly affected. Adaptation measures, i.e., biostimulants implementation and irrigation strategies definition, could be tools to reduce the impact of climate change on OR. These outcomes can be an important tool for climate change adaptation and risk reduction in the Portuguese olive chain sector.

Keywords: Olive crop; Agroclimatic zoning; Climate change; Suitability; CHELSA; CMIP6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11027-025-10247-4 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:30:y:2025:i:7:d:10.1007_s11027-025-10247-4

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11027

DOI: 10.1007/s11027-025-10247-4

Access Statistics for this article

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change is currently edited by Robert Dixon

More articles in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().