Evolution mechanism and driving factors of unconventional emergencies in megacities: an empirical study based on 102 cases in the world

Dan Zhou (), Chao Fan and An Chen ()
Additional contact information
Dan Zhou: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Chao Fan: Henan Polytechnic University
An Chen: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2020, vol. 103, issue 1, No 24, 513-530

Abstract: Abstract Based on the analysis method of emergency mechanism, this paper sorts out the key information of the evolution mechanism of the 102 unconventional emergencies occurred in 38 megacities in the world. By using DEMATEL model to search the main factors driving the evolution of the original events to sub-events and the mutual influence among them, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) During the development of unconventional emergencies in megacities, the evolutional phenomenon of events exists generally and the evolution paths are different obviously. (2) It can be seen that there is an obvious interactive feedback relationship between the emergency handling measures and event evolution in megalopolis. (3) The main department of disposal, the level of early warning and the pre-arranged planning are the most powerful factors determining the evolution of events. The research results have obvious warning significance to improving the ability of emergency management. As such, the paper is not a study of a failure in emergency cases, but rather the theoretical framework of unconventional emergencies evolution that make actions and decisions stand out as meaningful for the actors involved in dealing with situations of high complexity and uncertainty. In the future, it is necessary to study the driving results caused by various factors and explore the internal driving mechanism between the driving factors and the type of sub-events.

Keywords: Megalopolis; Unconventional emergency; Evolution mechanism; DEMATEL model; Driving factor (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-03998-7 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:103:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-03998-7

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03998-7

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().